When a new viral outbreak like Zika occurs, panic ensues. People fear the unknown: transmission method, symptoms, prognosis and how widespread it might already be.
This fear can paralyze an economy that usually thrives on tourism, according to Melanie Grand, assistant professor in the hospitality leadership department at Missouri State University. She recently developed a formula to predict the decrease in tourism if a situation like this arises.
“For example, you have New York City – they could lose up to 16 percent of their tourist trade,” Grand said. “To a city that size that usually has so many international visitors, that’s approximately nine million people fewer coming into the city. These situations significantly impact their economy.”
About the study
Grand used her training in zoology, biology and hospitality to develop the study, which factors in components like the number of nights the outbreak is featured on news broadcasts and the transmission method (for example: airborne, person-to-person contact or sexually transmitted). This combination accounts for the majority of the fear factor, she noted, especially when talking about cities with international visitors and travelers.
She modeled her study around the first noted cases of West Nile virus in the United States in 1999-2000. While it was frequently the top-reported story, only nine individuals died, she said.
“I realized that when there are fewer important items in the news, a viral outbreak becomes more sensationalized, and it gets moved up in the broadcast,” she added.
Remaining calm in face of panic
Individuals in the hospitality industry, including flight attendants, servers, housekeeping staff and cab drivers, are often in direct contact with those who are pre-symptomatic, she noted.
From her experience and research, Grand recommends the U.S. government move quickly to develop vaccines and communicate frequently about the known aspects of these outbreaks.
On a more grass-roots level, Grand believes it’s important for local government officials to appear prepared.
“My big takeaway in reducing panic is that the convention and visitors bureau of a city that is experiencing an outbreak like this needs to be proactive and working with the media,” she said. “Instead of showing someone in an emergency room situation, show somebody cleaning.”
For more information, contact Grand at 417-836-6042.
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